District IV Results Revealing
The District IV Commissioner race might be a sign of a changing City.
Four political neophytes have filed to run for the seat, currently occupied by term - limited Commissioner Cindi Hutchinson.
The District, which covers most of the south side of the City, was represented by Commissioner Jim Naugle from 1985 to 1991. There are more Fort Lauderdale "natives" living there than any other District. It's highly traditional - conservative. They even have a mandated historic neighborhood in the District, with bungalows built near the turn of the century.
So when the 2009 race sported a favorite son, who's Uncle was a famous local State Representative, you might expect him to be a shoe in.
But maybe not.
The "native" is local lawyer Romney Rogers.
Rogers
This weekend's poll showed Rogers with a 52% name recognition, the highest among the four competitors. But his "positive" ratings, among those who knew of him well enough to rate him, were only 56%.
What's most interesting is that we also generated poll numbers about some current politicians, and Jim Naugle's "Hard Negative" number in District IV was nearly identical to Rogers "Hard Negative" number, at 32% . "Hard Negatives" and "Hard Positives" are considered quite intractable. Could be that Romney is being swept up in the negative coat tails of the current Mayor ?
One competitor, local lawyer Coleman Prewitt, though lesser known than Rogers at a 44% name recognition, reached a surprisingly high "positive" rate, among those who knew of him well enough to rate him, of 89%. Prewitt's Positive rating tied Jack Seiler's as the highest in the entire poll. Seems that when people get to know him, they like him.
Prewitt
Local lawyer Jim Lewis also generated a name recognition rating of 44%, but his positive rating was only at 40%.
Local businessman George Trodella, who very recently entered the race, chalked up a 17% name recognition, and is not yet showing support.
I'll be adding the other District's poll outcomes next, some VERY INTERESTING things to come.
Four political neophytes have filed to run for the seat, currently occupied by term - limited Commissioner Cindi Hutchinson.
The District, which covers most of the south side of the City, was represented by Commissioner Jim Naugle from 1985 to 1991. There are more Fort Lauderdale "natives" living there than any other District. It's highly traditional - conservative. They even have a mandated historic neighborhood in the District, with bungalows built near the turn of the century.
So when the 2009 race sported a favorite son, who's Uncle was a famous local State Representative, you might expect him to be a shoe in.
But maybe not.
The "native" is local lawyer Romney Rogers.
Rogers
This weekend's poll showed Rogers with a 52% name recognition, the highest among the four competitors. But his "positive" ratings, among those who knew of him well enough to rate him, were only 56%.
What's most interesting is that we also generated poll numbers about some current politicians, and Jim Naugle's "Hard Negative" number in District IV was nearly identical to Rogers "Hard Negative" number, at 32% . "Hard Negatives" and "Hard Positives" are considered quite intractable. Could be that Romney is being swept up in the negative coat tails of the current Mayor ?
One competitor, local lawyer Coleman Prewitt, though lesser known than Rogers at a 44% name recognition, reached a surprisingly high "positive" rate, among those who knew of him well enough to rate him, of 89%. Prewitt's Positive rating tied Jack Seiler's as the highest in the entire poll. Seems that when people get to know him, they like him.
Prewitt
Local lawyer Jim Lewis also generated a name recognition rating of 44%, but his positive rating was only at 40%.
Local businessman George Trodella, who very recently entered the race, chalked up a 17% name recognition, and is not yet showing support.
I'll be adding the other District's poll outcomes next, some VERY INTERESTING things to come.
Very, very, interesting! I hope all the candidates are reading your blog!
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I am pleasantly surprised to see that the general public is not mislead in selecting a canddiate by the length of time he has lived in the city - lifelong or the merits of his family. It is good to see the public learning to ask important questions, acknowledging the work of candidates - not just since they filed to run.
Prewitt gets my vote - he has been walking the walk for a number of years and would be an asset to our commission.
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Interesting results, Tim...will be even more interesting to see if we can increase voter turnout this time. I'm guessing that if just a barely statistically significant number of 'non-traditional' voters come out to the polls for this election, we'll see some surprising results.
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Prewitt is far more in touch with district 4, Prewitt gets my vote
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